Super Tuesday Analysis: What You Need to Know
Matt | On 07, Mar 2012
Tuesday night was a long one for the politics nerds like myself. But, it was an interesting one if you like to keep up with the presidential race.
There was a lot of information to take in from the contests. Ten states voting. Four candidates. Seven hours of television coverage. Pundits talking. Social media going crazy. It’s all a part of the process to get to November 6.
Let’s get right to the action about what happened.
There were 10 GOP contests last night in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Ohio, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Of those contests, Mitt Romney won five (AK, ID, MA, OH, and VA). Rick Santorum won three contests (ND, OK, and TN). Newt Gingrich won his home state (GA), as predicted. Ron Paul still has yet to win a state contest after two months of voting.
Mitt Romney still leads in the delegate count at 404. Rick Santorum places second with 165. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have 106 and 66 delegates, respectively.
Last night’s race was interesting in some good and bad ways. Here’s why:
- GOOD: Hope is still alive for Rick Santorum, whom I personally hope gets to face President Obama in the general election. He cut right into Gingrich’s “Southern Strategy” by getting a definitive win in Tennessee. Newt only won one of 95 Tennessee counties, and that county borders Georgia.
- BAD: Mitt Romney won the prized contest in Ohio, but only because of the suburban areas in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati. He was a no-go with those in the rest of the state’s rural areas. If he becomes the nominee and can’t sway rural voters across the country, he is toast.
- GOOD: Over half of the 50 states have cast ballots in the primaries and caucuses. Super Tuesday was the “hump” we needed to get over. There shouldn’t be a jam-packed election night like this until the November 6 general election.
- BAD: Ron Paul hasn’t won a contest yet in the two-month primary sprint. It’s about time for him to drop out and run as an independent. He simply does not connect with the mainstream GOP base of older whites. He has been unwilling to admit that, unfortunately.
- GOOD: The low(er) voter turnout among Republicans and their inability to agree on a candidate places more favorability on President Obama’s re-election strategy. He will still have to work hard for a second term. However, the divide among affluent and rural voters will have to even itself out dramatically for the GOP to compete. Ultra-conservatives will NOT give ground .. just an FYI.
- BAD: Looking at Newt Gingrich’s “victory” speech in suburban Atlanta, you would have thought he was just inaugurated president. However, he’s only won two states (SC and GA) so far and one of them is his home state. Also, he lost two of the state’s population centers in two core counties of Atlanta and one in Savannah to Mitt Romney. He’s another one not facing reality about his bleak prospect to become the convention’s nominee.
- Things are looking tough for Mitt Romney in the southern states of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Remember, he only connects well with rich voters and this area of the country isn’t known for that.
- Newt Gingrich seems to think that Alabama and Mississippi are in play for him. He also thinks Kansas is a possibility, even though the heartland is clearly Rick Santorum country with his wins in OK, IA, MO, and MN.
- Santorum also could do well in AL and MS, since Gingrich hasn’t put the lock on his “Southern Strategy” (losing both FL and TN).
FULL RESULTS AND VOTER INFO
For full results and information about all of the states that participated in Super Tuesday voting, click here.
Also, remember to visit our ‘2012 Voter Info’ page for everything you need to check your registration, get registered, or research the voter ID laws for your state.
ANSWER IN THE COMMENTS SECTION BELOW:
What did you think of the election outcomes on Super Tuesday?
Share some of your predictions for the candidates moving forward.